New Polling Suggests Polling Is Fucked
Florida is a tossup? Iowa flips? What the heck?!
Over the past few months, various voter polls have told us many different narratives.
One suggests Florida is a tossup state, another suggests Iowa might flip in Harris’ favor, and one poll even suggests Jill Stein voters finally turn out in droves and create a meaningful multi-party system in the U.S..
That last one is a joke, of course, but the other two are actual predictions based on different polling models which begs the question: is polling fucked?
To put our question to the test, ASS News funded a study of our own, measuring the accuracy of past polls in presidential elections. What we found was shocking.
Unfortunately, the methodology that led to our shocking findings was filled with misguided assumptions and errors, so we had to throw the whole thing out.
But what we’re left with is a “feeling” and that shouldn’t be discounted. Our feeling is that polling is accurate roughly 50% of the time, meaning any given poll has a 50% chance of being correct.
With that knowledge, we encourage you to search the web and binge-read as many polls as you’re able to before the results begin to come in tomorrow.
Believe the ones you want to, disregard the others, and then vote!
To find your closest ballot drop off box or voting location, please see the resources below: